The press would have you believe the Los Angeles Mayor’s Race is a contest between Karen Bass, a failing career politician who’s done nothing for your life, and Rick Caruso, a billionaire who doesn’t care about you, and never will. Nothing could be further from the truth? Let’s look at the math.
Neither candidate has faced a significant attack ad or concerted attack, backed by any significant financing, and both candidates have enjoyed a massive amount of press coverage from a mostly-biased press corps, which means that both Karen and Rick have had unlimited opportunity to spread a positive message across this city to build support for their candidacies…and they failed.
With unlimited positive press, and the nearly-unanimous support of the national Democratic party trying to force her down this city’s throat, Karen Bass peaked at 32% in February of 2022. Since then, her numbers have been on the decline, most recently at 23%, down 9 points. Even worse, her support among the black community—her claim to fame in “helping” them two decades ago—is half what President Obama’s was. She’s not carrying a majority of any political group except woke white liberal women desperate to proven their bona fides.
Rick Caruso’s numbers aren’t any better. Even after spending $20 million in an unprecedented barrage of positive advertising, the public isn’t buying it. In February, just before he declared, he had the support of 8% of voters. Now, months later and tens of millions of dollars later, he’s at 24%. (If you’re familiar with how polls work, that means in a poll of 1380 people, Rick Caruso spent $96,153 per new voter in that poll.)
You might tend to believe, then, that Karen is waning and Rick is surging, but in fact, Karen is waning, and Rick has likely hit his ceiling. How do we know? We analyze where his support came from. When Berkley ran their poll in February 2022, 40% of voters were undecided or didn’t want any candidate listed. When Berkley ran their poll again two months later, that number stood at…39%. With millions of dollars spent, Rick could only convince ONE PERCENT of undecided voters—who are not decided, they just don’t want any of the leading choices—to vote for him.
So where did his support come from? Well, he gained 16 points, and it’s pretty easy to see where: Berkley shows us. He took 3 from Joe Buscaino, 2 from Mike Feuer, 2 from Jessica Lall, 2 from Kevin de Leon, and 1 from Mel Wilson…and 5 from Karen Bass. (Karen’s remaining drop from 32 to 23 came with 2% to Gina Viola and 1% to Alex Gruenenfelder Smith.)
So what do all these numbers mean? You shouldn’t be paying attention to the 23% who support Karen Bass, or the 24% who support Rick Caruso. You should be paying attention to the 40% of likely voters, hundreds of thousands of people who, after months of an advertising and press onslaught, are shouting from the rooftops that they aren’t buying the lies from the other leading candidates. They don’t want career insiders and career politicians who have led this city with empty promises and lies for decades. And no amount of money and biased news coverage is going to convince them otherwise.
They want a new way forward, a bold and fresh candidate focused on common sense and common ground. They are ready and willing to vote for an outsider with proven solutions. I am that candidate.
This is not a question of competing against Rick, Karen, or any other candidate. This is simply about raising enough money to reach the few hundred thousand voters who have already rejected every other leading candidate, and showing them that, for the first time in 80 years, there is a candidate they can believe in. A candidate they can trust. A candidate with real plans and a proven track record of results.